A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
